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Coronavirus: US 2nd surge reaches plateau but few experts celebrate



While coronavirus deaths are rising rapidly in the U.S., public health experts are seeing a flicker of good news: the second influx of confirmed cases appears to have disappeared.

Scientists are by no means celebrating the holiday, warning that the trend is driven by four large and hard-hit locations – Arizona, California, Florida and Texas – and that the number of cases is increasing in nearly 30 states and the outbreak center is gravitational. .

Some experts question whether the obvious improvements made in the handling of the cases will continue. It is also unclear when deaths will begin to decline. Death from COVID-1

9 does not equate to a perfect point on the infection curve for the simple reason that you can get sick for weeks and die from the virus.

The future? “I find it very difficult to predict,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s chief expert on communicable diseases.

The virus has claimed more than 150,000 lives in the United States, the highest number of deaths in the world, plus more than half a million people worldwide.

The average number of deaths per day in the U.S. has risen more than 25 percent in the past week, from 843 to 1,057. Another 253 deaths were reported in Florida on Thursday, the third straightest day in a single day. The number of confirmed infections across the country exceeded 4.4 million.

In other projects:

– Added additional damage caused by the virus when in April. – June The U.S. economy plunged to a staggering 32.9 percent. The annual rate is still the worst in 1947. A record quarter. unemployment benefits last week are further evidence that employers are still losing their jobs for five months during the crisis.

– In addition to the outbreak and bad economic news, President Donald Trump first publicly announced the idea of ​​postponing Nov. 3. Presidential elections, warning without evidence that increased postal voting will lead to fraud. The changing election day will require an act of Congress, and this idea has provoked direct opposition from both top Republicans and Democrats.

– Herman Cain, former head of the pizzeria chain, 2012 Unsuccessfully seeking to become the first black candidate to win a Republican presidential candidacy, he died of viral complications at the age of 74.

According to data available from Johns Hopkins University, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States has dropped from 67,317 on July 22, based on a seven-day moving average. By 65,266 on Wednesday. This is a decrease of about 3%.

Researchers are taking two weeks of data in the same direction to tell if the trend is real. “But I think that’s true, yes,” said Ira Longini, a biostatisticist at the University of Florida who observed the coronavirus and was a source of prognosis for the diseases used by the government.

The Associated Press found a seven-day moving average of new cases, which peaked in two weeks in California and declined in Arizona, Florida and Texas.

Trends in Arizona, Texas and Florida are “starting to bend a little bit,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health researcher at Johns Hopkins. Those states, along with California, released a large number of cases to the national table every day. So when those places make progress, the whole country looks better, ”she said.

In addition, looking ahead, the percentage of viral virus tests in the U.S. has fallen from an average of 8.5% to 7.8% over the past week.

But when the outbreak began, including in the Midwest, Wisconsin Democratic Governor Tony Evers ordered masks to be worn nationwide for spike cases, joining 30 other states that have taken such measures.

The latest increase in cases became apparent in June, a few weeks after the deadly explosion of cases in the states in and around New York resumed operations in early spring. Earlier this month, the number of cases per day rose to 70,000 or more. After a few weeks, the backlog also started to increase sharply.

Some researchers believe that equalization has recently been linked to more people facing social isolation and other precautions.

“I think most people wear masks because they’re afraid,” Longini said.

Dean of the College of Public Health, University of Nebraska, Dr. Ali Khan said this trend could also be driven by the natural dynamics of the virus, which scientists do not yet understand.

Experts have said that without reliable testing and other virus control measures, a third peak is possible or even likely, given that so far only about 10 percent. The Americans were infected. And there is no reason to believe that the peak cannot be greater than the first two.

“The disease will continue until the thinner – susceptible individuals – like any good fire,” said Khan, a former top researcher at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Fauci said he was “a little comforted” by the recent plateau. However, with the stabilization of cases, some 60,000 cases are “still at a very high level”. He said he was also concerned about the rising percentage of positive tests in states such as Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana.

“It’s a warning sign that you can see the wave,” Fauci said. “They really have to jump through it all.”

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