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The Chinese economy may be much weaker than official data



The second-largest global economic growth last year has reached its lowest level in almost three decades, according to government data. Best World Brands Including Apple ( AAPL ) and Caterpillar ( CAT ) accused China of its weakness for them losing profit.

It is possible that even is lower than Chinese official statistics, according to many analysts.

"China's published figures on GDP are absolute garbage," said Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige, an advisory company. "This is undoubtedly a consensus that these numbers are unreliable."

His company chooses data from thousands of Chinese companies to give their picture of what is happening. . Miller says China's economy is now "much, much weaker" than the Chinese government's data suggest that everything is likely to be short.
After finding the expected length and depth of the recession it is important for companies to make investment and lease decisions, and for investors who have their money. China is struggling with the government's efforts to combat risky lending and trade war with the United States.

Some experts suspect that the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, which contains a large amount of country data, is more focused on the fact that China's official growth rate is much stronger than many major economies, but many analysts question its accuracy. ”

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The Bureau is "The First Communist Party Body and the Second Honorable Statistical Intermediary," resident Derek Scissors, a scientist at the American Business Institute in Washington, wrote in a recent diary.

It is difficult to determine the real pace of China's growth, as many government data do not “make sense”, as Scissors claims, which is also chief economist of China Beige Book. For example, economic figures do not match the average income of Chinese citizens, he said.

Many other analysts used their metrics to understand how the economy works.

The Capital Economics research firm is investigating various data, including sea freight, electricity production and financial lending, to provide a proxy. On this basis, China's economy could only grow by about 5% last year, not 6.6%.

The slowdown in China slowed down.

"The economy will worsen in the coming months," said Wei Bingyu, owner of Beijing Industrial Paint Factory. He blamed the hardships of war on trade and other issues.

A carefully monitored independent survey, which evaluates the huge health of the Chinese manufacturing sector, lasted nearly three years last month.

Chinese Consumers Under Pressure

Investors are testing the economy for signs of weakness, which so far include declining industry profits and declining exports
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  What is hurting (and not yet) of China's economic slowdown
Chinese behavior focuses on consumers. Chinese buyers' spending last year grew by almost 10%, according to official data. However, the huge car market in the country in 2018 has been a major concern. For the first time, it has been declining for about 20 years, and retail trade in this month's Moon New Year celebration has grown slowly for more than a decade.

Official China data is likely to "surpass consumption growth," recently, China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard recently announced to Capital Economics. He estimates that last year China's major urban areas' consumer spending fell by about 3%, which means that middle-class buyers are tightening their belts.

This is in line with the claims of some business owners. Zhou Chang, owner of a Beijing-based gym, told CNN that his clients are spending less.

The use of the gym "is not quite like eating, clothing, housing or commuting," said Zhou. "These are the benefits and bodybuilding is not." As the economy slows down "many gyms have temporarily closed or gone bankrupt," he added.

  Some Chinese companies blame the war on trade with the United States for worsening conditions

Does the stimulus take place where it is needed?

The Chinese government says that the slowdown in economic growth is too great.

In a speech last month at the Davos World Economic Forum, Vice President Wang Qishan urged investors to stop worrying about the economy. “2019 There will be a lot of uncertainty, but something that is real is that China's growth will continue and will be sustainable, ”he said.
However, Chinese officials expressed concern. They tried to stimulate growth through measures such as tax cuts, more infrastructure costs and a freer monetary policy.
  2018 The Chinese stock market was terrible. This year may be much better

It is still unclear how much action will be taken to stop the slowdown, as many of the additional funds they release are allocated to inefficient state-owned enterprises , not private companies, analysts say.

Many private Chinese companies usually rely on shadow financing, dark forms of lending that are kept outside the official bank balance sheets. In recent years, regulators have condemned this practice

"It is very difficult to gain financial leverage as a private business," said Guo Yucheng, owner of the Jilin drug manufacturing company in the northern province.

He recently merged his company with government property to improve access to finance. He predicted that it would take up to two years, such as Tax Reduction Measures, to actually target companies in difficulty.

"There are so many companies like us who are trying to get every month," said Guo "Private companies are going for a long winter".

Serenitie Wang, Julia Horowitz, Lily Lee and Eduardo Baptista have contributed to this report.


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