President Donald Brief went out of the president's limousine before leaving Washington for a campaign trip to the United Base in Andrews Maryland, 2018. November 5
Carlos Barria | Reuters
Two of President Trump's priorities – a strong stock market and a tough China trade deal – are in conflict. The conflict throws Wall Street as it pursues moving pricing goals.
Traders hang on the president's every word in search of presidential rhetoric and possible mitigation in the ongoing trading war.
If the tweets are any feature, the president's attention is drawn. Over the last two weeks, President Twitter has mentioned trade-related terms: double the economy and stocks
So far, Trump has reported about four times a week about China, trade and tariffs – the same average jobs , stock and economic frequency. However, on May 5, the commemoration of its China and its trade rose to about 46 times, and its Twitter analysis pointed to economic-related phrases about 17 times. There is some overlap because he sometimes combines several things in the same tweet
"Tariff Man", as Brief himself described himself, won the Battle of Presidential Personality, and Dow Man has been back for some time.
"It's Not Possible"
Wall Street analysts find work to predict the president's daily thinking so that customers are a difficult task.
"It is impossible – here is the risk reward that almost all this is at the discretion of President Trump," said Raymond James Washington, political analyst Ed Mills. "You cannot fully know what his intentions are."
On the one hand, Short addresses its base with a firm stance on trade before 2020. Elections. But economists say that lower trade among the world's major economies is threatening to reduce growth, at least in the near future
This leads to global growth expectations and hence to the stock market. Dow Jones Industrial Average – Trump's strong economy announcement card – dropped by 600 points on Monday after new rounds of rebates. On Tuesday he met for more trade optimism and rose again on Wednesday. In general, Dow is just over 3 percent, because Trump 10 days ago expanded its trading war, threatening to increase tariffs for China, which he followed last Friday.
"The problem is that the president has two controversial polls," CNBC said. "He is, of course, watching Dow and has friends who probably call him and say," We kill Donald, "and this is one of Donald Trump's side, but also a very political side."
the political side has increased tariffs from 10%. up to 25 percent $ 200 billion from China imports. The US is also taking the necessary legal action to bring another 25 percent of the cost. Tariff rate of $ 300 billion for imports, which would take place no earlier than June. The bloc highlighted the uncertainty he said prompted customers to say "stay away".
"If I think Donald Trump's mind is better than anyone else, and I have great confidence in the result, Fundstrat would have to pay more money than they could afford," said Block. However, he said short priorities, so the public position could change at the last minute
"Turn on the Point"
Isaac Boltansky, director of compass point research and trade policy, is also flying this volatile market. He said that "customers are aware that this story can get involved in the boulevard." 19659002] Trump in December Earlier this year, the company released Tariff Man in Chile, the month when S&P 500 fell by 9.2 percent. from the worst month since the financial crisis.
Trump also uses armament against the Democratic Candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden to support the Pacific Partnership
. "Tariffs focus directly on Trump's election map, especially on farm economies," said Dan Clifton, Partner and Strategic Research Partners Policy Chief. "At the same time, Short can convincingly prove that Biden was weak in China, and the resignation from China benefits from re-election."
China reacted to US tariffs with $ 60 billion. goods. This shows that the economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation says that "every corner" farmers fall into "every corner." To reduce the impact of Beijing's retaliatory action, Trump said this week that farmers will receive about $ 15 billion. His campaign is to bet that farmers will support Trump, despite being hit by American agriculture.
"An agreement with China to end their bad behavior would bring even greater long-term economic benefits," said Tim Murtaugh, Communications Director at Trump. "Farmers are patriotic and realize that someone had to call China."
Murtaugh also drew attention to the rapidly growing economy, another point of rationalization before 2020. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 3.2 percent. April unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1969
10% reduction before changing the song
But many economists believe that changes in trade winds are threatening this boom. One of Oxford Economics's estimates shows that the amount of household loss is about $ 500. If the White House tariffs apply to all imports from China, the US economy by 2020 It would be less than $ 100 billion. Which means that $ 800 per household will be lost
. "US policy makers are ready to take some pain because they believe that China's pain will be greater than the US and make China return to the negotiating table," Clifton said. "The most important thing is how it affects the economy."
Raymond James & # 39; s Ed Mills said stocks could still fall until Trump eased rhetoric. Shares should suffer at least 10% of the "before Trump & # 39; start talking about the G20 perspective," Mills said. Trump and its Chinese partner Xi Jinping are expected to meet next month at the G-20 summit.
"China has made an estimated decision that Trump's administration is just as painful that" Mills "from stock markets until it replaced its song
. is thin. On CNBC's interview on Wednesday, Bannon said there was "no chance", and the president would return to a global lag.
"It would be very easy for him to sign a deal when they bought more soybeans and Wall Street soldiers say it is terrible, and that the stock market is going through a moment," said Bannon CNBC Squawk Box on Wednesday. . "This reduces the kernel of the United States in the future." Reporting